Iraq

There weren’t any WMDs. So, was the war a mistake? Here are two views: why it was a mistake and why it wasn’t. Both articles are thoughtful.

No WMDs? No Global Warming?

Although some people have more sinister theories, I believe that George W. felt an urgency to invade Iraq because of WMDs. The failure to find WMDs in Iraq cost the President a lot of his support and spawned all manner of conspiracy theories.

If this is right, we might be in a similar situation with global warming. Already a few scientific societies have backed off their whole hearted endorsement. Will Al Gore’s popularity and credibility evaporate if it becomes increasingly evident that the global warming excitement was really much ado about nothing? It won’t matter to Gore - he’s not running for office. Will people ever say that it was a good thing we got Bush instead of Gore because all Bush got us into was Iraq, while Gore would have destroyed the economy?

Iraq - Beginning of the End

Strategy Page says

The war is basically over in Iraq, but the peace brings with it a return to the corruption and inefficiency that has cursed this part of the world for centuries.

All of which makes me think that a timetable for getting out (mostly) may not be the worst idea in the world. If liberation has brought out the worst in the Iraqi people, the War has brought out the worst and best of the American people. Two thirds of the wars supporters and opponents seem like numbskulls - and very loud numbskulls at that. We’re lucky it’s so few. There have been intelligent and well reasoned arguments for and against this war, but you’ve had to look to find them - and most people seem uninterested. This doesn’t bode well for the next war.

Follow the Money

This is why you can believe that we’ve won in Iraq.

Iraq - Yesterday and Tomorrow

We humans have imperfect memories. Not only do we forget, we also misremember. When listening to the ongoing arguments about Iraq, it’s useful to think back to how things were before we invaded. Of course, we misremember and forget - but the Web doesn’t! I found this 2003 editorial from before the invasion instructive. The Economist reluctantly supported the invasion as the least bad of several bad options. Their opinion might have been different if they knew then what we know now. And our current opinions might be different if we knew now what we’ll know in 5 years. But since nobody has that luxury, we have to go with what we know.

I’m not sure why so many people fixate on the past. Sure, we can and should learn from the past, but all we can learn from Iraq is that knowledge is imperfect. We should be thinking about the future. At minimum, our presidential contenders should think about the future. I think both Obama and McCain have it wrong. President Obama won’t pull too many troops out if it leads to a resurgence of Al-Qaeda. McCain won’t leave too many troops for too long because the Iraqi government won’t tolerate it. The military and foreign policy path that either will be forced to follow is rather narrow and neither will stray too far off the path. The future of the U.S. in Iraq isn’t much of a political issue - and no one can do anything about the past.

Spending Priorities

The Democrats have a point: if we weren’t spending so much money in Iraq, we’d have a lot more to give to millionaire farmers!

Policy Choices

I thought we’d have to wait longer, but we’re finally starting to see some of the “inside story” about how we went to war in Iraq. I’m sure more will follow and, in a few years, we’ll know much more (not that many people will care). I like this quote from Mr. Feith: “policy making often involves choosing to accept one set of likely problems over another.”

Indeed, this appears to be true of most policy decisions. Yet, in public discussions, this is rarely mentioned. Instead, we see advocates and opponents each arguing as if the public forum was a courtroom. Sometimes a newspaper, trying to be “fair and balanced”, will examine the pros and cons of a policy proposal, but it’s rare to see a discussion of problems caused by adopting or not adopting a policy.

Thinking in Iraq

With Iraq much on the nation’s mind, does anyone care what the Iraqi’s think? Officially, the government of Iraq speaks for the people. Read what their ambassador says. Unofficially, a recent poll shows that 49% of Iraqi’s believe the invasion and occupation of Iraq was a good thing. Amazing. I’m probably one of a very few who still haven’t decided whether the whole Iraq adventure was a good idea or not. It seems to me that a lot of Iraqi’s think they were liberated rather than invaded. That doesn’t mean it was worth it, but it diminishes a lot of the better anti-war arguments.

What’s Up In Iraq?

With the news focus on the elections and the ongoing implosion of the Democratic Party, there has been scant attention paid to Iraq (except for all the historical questions of whose judgment was better). There’s been new fighting in Basra reported, but very little in terms of context. Here’s one view of context, and it’s not good news. A quote:

In particular, the recent fighting in Basra and Baghdad is not at root a civil war between Iraqi Shia political factions, but an ongoing struggle between the Iraqi government and illegal militias organized, trained, equipped and funded by Iran.

Candidates for Change!

Since Cicero, older guys have been complaining about the general decline of morals in particular and civilization in general. I hate to sound like an older guy, but since I am an older guy, cut me some slack. Bret Stephens had a great article in the Tuesday WSJ which started off as a review of the situation in Iraq and ended as a critique of American society in general. Regarding Iraq, he noted that Iraq was earlier a net exporter of terrorism but is now a net importer of terrorism. That’s progress. But then he noted that our society has exceedingly high expectations. We want everything immediately, we insist on perfection (merely good or better isn’t good enough anymore), and we’ve become chronic complainers. So here we are, living in comfort and ease in the most wealthy society in history, with medical care that would have been astounding even a decade ago, with miracles at our beck and call, and all we want is change! Maybe we deserve whatever we get.