Dr. No Says Yes

Phil Gramm left the Senate in order to earn some money. I was sorry to see him go. Now he’s back in politics as a McCain advisor. For the first time in years, he’s given a lengthy interview. An excerpt:

“Why is America the richest country in the world?” he asks. “It’s not because our people are more brilliant; it’s because we have a better free-market system. Why has Texas created 1.6 million jobs in the last 10 years whereas Michigan has lost 300,000 jobs and Ohio has lost 100,000 jobs? Because governance matters, taxes matter, regulation matters. Our opponents in this campaign are so dogmatic in their goal of having more government because they love the power it brings to them that they’re willing to let it impose costs on the working people that they say they want to help. I am not.”

Read the whole thing.

Staying In Iraq

Whether you think we were right or wrong to invade or liberate Iraq has little to do with the present. Whether you think we were misguided, misled, misinformed, or supporting the highest moral standards, it’s all in the past. We can’t do anything about the past. The issue today is how long, and under what circumstances, we stay. Max Boot has a good argument for staying a long long time. But, like a lot of people, I worry about imperial overreach. Yet it’s hard to ignore the fact that things are peaceful where we have troops and not so peaceful anywhere else. It’s interesting to hear the tepid calls for “doing more” in Darfur and Zimbabwe - there are limits to how much we can do at a time and political limits to how much we want to do at all. I admit that I don’t have a well thought out opinion regarding our use of our military in general, which is probably why I don’t have a strong opinion about specific military involvements.

Anarchy

I confess: anarchy isn’t something I think about very often. But I like to think I have an open mind, so I enjoyed this clever opinion piece which makes an intelligent case. I think there more than a few show stoppers in the voyage to anarchy, not least of which is the problem of civic infrastructure. But I’m not going to kill any brain cells thinking about extreme improbables. Still, it’s a good read and I’m glad I took the time.

Law Of Cooperation

Just what the world needs - another explanation of comparative advantage. Well, maybe it is what the world needs. We seem surrounded by political pinheads who clearly don’t grasp the concept and so will cheerfully lead us toward poverty. Maybe this explanation should be required reading for all politicians. And maybe we should call it something else - maybe the Law of Cooperation. And Tucker has a good point - it’s a law like gravity, not a law like the speed limit. It’s just silly to trust a politician who wants to defy the Law of Cooperation as it is to trust one who says he can fly by flapping his arms.

Online Spreadsheet Updates

I’ve been running all my spreadsheets online for many months now and never hit a serious problem until this week. I’ve updated my report on how to choose between Google Docs spreadsheets and Zoho Sheets. My two problems were:

1. I hit a computational limit in a complex spreadsheet hosted on Google. Fortunately, I moved it to Zoho and all was well. Bad on Google, good on Zoho.
2. I moved to Firefox 3 and pivot tables stopped working on Zoho. Bad on Zoho.

But, I’ve has some good news as well. Firefox 3 made both Google and Zoho run a lot faster. And the new Firefox 3 smart address bar makes it easy to jump straight into a Google spreadsheet by simply typing some of it’s name.

Phony Environmentalists

This analysis of the environmental movement has a lot of painful truth in it. I’m sure that there are sincere environmentalists, people who live an eco-friendly lifestyle at great personal sacrifice. But there are many more who demand 21st century comforts for themselves while depriving others of the same comforts. They may be willing to make some token sacrifices, like recycling, but aren’t committed enough to do anything meaningful. How do you identify the phony environmentalists? Here are some identifying characteristics of phony environmentalists:

• Anyone who uses a clothes dryer rather than a clothesline
• Anyone who uses air conditioning in their home or car
• Anyone who eats convenience food
• Anyone who buys bottled water, soft drinks, or beer

You get the idea. No one I know advocates wanton destruction of the environment, but I also know no one who wants to live a primitive and bestial existence - even if the price is some environmental degradation. Mankind began damaging the environment when our ancestors invented agriculture. The question isn’t whether we disturb the environment or not - the question is how and how much.

Obama vs McCain

“…this arms race of goofy ideas….” - Read the whole thing.

Trial and Error

I’ve often stated that economies (in general) and businesses (in particular) operate by trial and error. Long term success is not driven so much be getting lucky as it is by learning from mistakes.

Yet trial and error isn’t the whole story. Wal-Mart became huge by relentlessly analyzing everything about their business. In their early years, they pioneered the  use of massive data analysis to improve their business by not making error in the first place. Today, even very small businesses have access to powerful analysis technology. As Megan points out, companies are increasingly aiming this technology at fuel consumption. Other kinds of energy consumption are also being targetted. And good old trial and error will play a role. There will come a “tipping point” where energy supply growth will exceed demand growth and the world will look very very different.

One of the great human failings is to believe that trends will go on forever, even though they seldom do.

Oil Follies!

Beside the great graphic, this article examines the silliness going on in Washington. Professor Mankiw points to other economists who make some of the same points: scapegoating speculators is utter nonsense.

Let’s be clear: gasoline prices fluctuate due to market forces, but we’re seeing abnormal one-way fluctuation due to government intervention. Neither party is blameless: the seeds of our problem were planted in the Nixon administration. The Democrats have occasionally made the problems worse while the Republicans let things fester through a program of malign neglect. The economics of this situation are simple, but beyond the grasp of most politicians. And things don’t look hopeful: McCain and Obama seem to be competing to win some prize for Profound Ignorance, although McCain seems to be getting a little more educated. Better late than never. Maybe.

Don’t look for good news any time soon.

Beggar Thy Neighbor

This story of moral hazard is becoming all too common. I’ve even heard advisors on public radio recommend missing mortgage payments in order to “get the bank’s attention”. I know people who are doing the same thing. Since when did “beggar thy neighbor” become good financial advice and good public policy? Is the notion of taking responsibility for your own mistakes so alien to our society? And has there ever been a workable society based on a moral code that says cheating is just fine? I hate to sound like a grumpy old codger, but we may be witnessing the beginning of the end of something.