Market Panic!!!!!

I know a lot of people are expecting me to make some wise comments about yesterday’s big stock market decline, but there are a zillion geniuses out there doing the same right now, so what can I add? If you’ve followed my core trading strategy, and looked at any charts, you’ll already know that I’m a bit bearish on the market after yesterday’s mini-plummet. I’m not bearish on everything - some things, like utilities and commodities, appear only to have created nice buying opportunities. But in general, things don’t look great since lower price channels have been breached.

Is it time to sell? No. Markets usually bounce back, and I’ll be a seller when it bounces, unless it bounces too much, in which case I’ll stand pat. What is interesting to me is that this small correction has created a lot of specific opportunities (the “explore” part of core and explore), which might move me more into individual stocks rather than index funds.

Productivity Boost From Google

I read the Google Operating System blog religiously because it keeps telling me about great new capabilities in Google and elsewhere. The latest revelation is really super: Google Notebooks can now be exported to Google Docs. I haven’t checked out how well this works, but this could be a real boon for researching subjects, collecting notes, and then finally publishing results.

Blog Searching

If you want to read very recent thoughts on topical events, you need to read blogs. But how do you find them? Most of the major search engines have a “search blog” capability, but they’re not all equally easy to use or useful. I’ve tested a bunch of them and find that I like Ask.com’s blog search best. When you do a normal search in Ask.com, the result screen gives you the ability to repeat the search as a blog search. Fewer clicks, faster action.

The Economics Of Autism

I read the original story in the WSJ, but this review and critique captures the essence. This seems to be another case of correlation being confused with causation. Oh, the causation might exist - who knows? - but there has been no attempt to prove it. Only correlation has been demonstrated - and indirect causation at that. As I keep repeating, being careless with numbers can cause a lot of misery in this world.

Analyzing Poverty

This article illustrates some of the problem with the mathematical analysis of poverty. Does it strike you as questionable that 16 million Americans have incomes so incredibly low? An individual earning less than $5080 a year would be in desperate straits indeed…perhaps. Does this include college students? Does this include people in prisons and other institutions? Does this include Steve Jobs, who makes $1 a year as CEO of Apple? Does this include all sources of income, or only earned income? What about government income sources like unemployment insurance, social security, Food Stamps? What counts and what doesn’t? Does this include priests who have taken vows of poverty? If there are people in such extreme need as the numbers imply, then we have a moral obligation to help them. But without knowing a lot more detail, it’s impossible to say exactly what should be done and for whom. The most helpful thing someone could do would be to dig deeper into the facts - you can’t solve problems you don’t understand.

Statistical Pitfalls - The Middle Class Squeeze

The discovery of statistics must rate as one of the great advances in human civilization. But statistics are inherently dangerous and arguments based on statistics must be examined very closely. Consider the ongoing argument about the economy. One set of statistics is used to support the view that the economy, and all of us, are doing just fine. Another set of statistics is used to say that we are seeing a “middle class squeeze” and that the average guy and gal are losing out. As far as I’ve seen, both set of statistics are accurate. So what gives?

There are several aspects to this, but I will deal with just one. The “everything is great” camp relies on data about individual income. On an individual basis, we’re doing very well. The “middle class squeeze” camp relies on household income, and on that basis, things don’t look so hot.

Two related facts must be considered. First, young people are staying single longer. This means that there are more single person households. Second, the divorce rate continues to increase, meaning that one household splits into two. So, both the individual and household statistics can be correct, even though they lead to contradictory conclusions about how well off we are.

Hello world!

Welcome to my new blog, Thinking Things Through. What I hope to do here is to examine contentious political and social issues. Many blogs do this, but many are not particularly fair minded. Too many partisans ignore the points raised by their opponents and consequently “talk past” each other. Many base their arguments on assumptions which are not examined. But I believe intellectual honesty requires more. While I won’t be able to examine every issue I might want to examine, I can at least examine some and perhaps reach conclusions that I can find satisfactory. Maybe you can too!